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If you buy Tesla or Musk’s promises on when FSD will arrive, then I have a bridge for sale. They’ve been promising that “soon” for a long time now.


This kind of claim — that they are making and breaking promises — is really flame bait. Every time I have asked for links to these promises, people have been unable to provide them.

Instead they provide links to articles where Elon said he "expects" or "thinks" or "predicts" (or, the most utterly damning case which I saw just once, "is certain") of something.

Where generally the something is either:

A) not even full self driving

B) or not on production cars, but only on prototype cars, and rightly so, because a regulatory approval will be needed.

I don't think these mythical "promises" really exist, except in the minds of people who have not understood what has been presented.

Of course you left yourself an out with the word "soon." OK, I think they can get away with saying that, but you have to be discerning as a reader and understand that the time scale is not going to be weeks or months.


did I ever say I believed him?



Are you really taking these as promises?

Link 1: "will probably"

Link 2: "I think"

Link 3: "He said he expected…" and "It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available"

Link 4: "He predicts"

Link 5: "He thinks"

Link 6: "I think"

And in some of these he's not talking about production cars, but is talking about prototype vehicles in Tesla's development fleet.


turbocapitalists insisting that a "maybe" relieve people from their claims is the reason why progressive countries have laws against misleading advertisements separate from contract law.


I agree with that, but saying "I think x will happen" is not the same as saying "I promise x will happen."

Keep in mind the word "promise" is being used repeatedly and emphatically on forums like this one.


I didn't expect Musk's defenders to offer up a defense whose cornerstone is that his judgment is so poor and his knowledge so weak that it is foolish to trust even short-term predictions about his own products.


It’s not exactly how you’re reading it, but you could say bleeding edge is how he operates. When there is a 51% chance of success, he goes for it. We’re talking in the lab. For consumer products, the standards are different. A lot of his statements are about the lab versions.




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