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I voted you back up because I don't think you deserve to be negative.

But I'd challenge your claim that you can actually profit from the general economic ignorance. The reason I'm so skeptical is because the market is so good at working around inefficiencies that even when we think something's got to collapse, it finds a way to keep going. (if you'll excuse me for anthropomorphizing)



The anthropomorphizing is appropriate because it illustrates a very real phenomena, and the only thing I can say to that is you cannot predict the timing of events (or at least I can't) as well as you can recognize the fundamentals.

Buffett's approach is to invest based on the fundamentals, and then just wait for the timing to prove him right. And he can wait a long time.

I view all the people keeping the price down (or up) when the fundamentals say otherwise as contributing to market inefficiency. (to the extent that the market doesn't shoe the "perfect objective" price) I agree that the market may be very efficient at showing the balance of the demand from people who think the fundamentals are one way, vs, those who think the opposite. In fact, I think that's what makes for the "inefficiencies" I'm talking about.

EG: Many say gold is in a bubble, while others say gold is under priced. I would say the market is reasonably accurate at putting the gold price at the equilibrium of these two views, but that the fundamentals makes one of these views right and the other wrong.




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