As a laserdisc collector, I am particularly aware of disc rot and in those it is far more present by now. Practically all discs have some level by now even the good ones, and even if they look clean to the eye. There are people that say the same thing there, that there are good discs that don't have rot and bad ones that do. But that is not true, there are only better and worse examples, faster and slower progress.
cds are both younger and built better, so they will not only last to a later absolute date, they will last longer relative to their manufacturing date, but cds have a few other things that mask rot even when it starts, which is both that they are digital and the player has buffering and interpolation, and also that the data format includes redundant data for error correction. (ld is analog and has neither, later better players do add some digital processing but it can't do the kind of good job with a 6mhz analog fm ntsc video signal that a cd player can with a simple audio bitstream)
A cd with the same rot that is visible on a ld (visible in the output not visible to the eye on the physical disc) will appear to play perfectly even in the cheapest junk player.
So, it will take longer, but I see no reason to treat "longer" as "indefinite".
There is no specific time, but it is inevitable and I don't think it's in the 100's of years but in the 10's of years, and the 10's of years, especially when many are already 30 years old, is not very many more 10's of years left.
And if that turns out to be pessimistic and they last another 50 or more? That's just a bonus. Lucky future rippers who get a chance to rip with even better tech later.
Tangentially I do also assume that some day long before the polycarbonate disintigrates, there will be a practical way to read even fully oxidized discs with a different frequency laser or even a camera or microscope-based head, or even a bulk scanner that just rasterizes the whole surface without even bothering to read the track in a spiral until after the fact purely in software.
As time goes on, tools get both better and more accessible, so in 1995 it would not be possible for a person to make their own laser head, but today it probably is, and in only a few more years will just get easier and easier, and probably at a rate that outruns the rate at which the discs fully degrade.
cds are both younger and built better, so they will not only last to a later absolute date, they will last longer relative to their manufacturing date, but cds have a few other things that mask rot even when it starts, which is both that they are digital and the player has buffering and interpolation, and also that the data format includes redundant data for error correction. (ld is analog and has neither, later better players do add some digital processing but it can't do the kind of good job with a 6mhz analog fm ntsc video signal that a cd player can with a simple audio bitstream)
A cd with the same rot that is visible on a ld (visible in the output not visible to the eye on the physical disc) will appear to play perfectly even in the cheapest junk player.
So, it will take longer, but I see no reason to treat "longer" as "indefinite".
There is no specific time, but it is inevitable and I don't think it's in the 100's of years but in the 10's of years, and the 10's of years, especially when many are already 30 years old, is not very many more 10's of years left.
And if that turns out to be pessimistic and they last another 50 or more? That's just a bonus. Lucky future rippers who get a chance to rip with even better tech later.
Tangentially I do also assume that some day long before the polycarbonate disintigrates, there will be a practical way to read even fully oxidized discs with a different frequency laser or even a camera or microscope-based head, or even a bulk scanner that just rasterizes the whole surface without even bothering to read the track in a spiral until after the fact purely in software.
As time goes on, tools get both better and more accessible, so in 1995 it would not be possible for a person to make their own laser head, but today it probably is, and in only a few more years will just get easier and easier, and probably at a rate that outruns the rate at which the discs fully degrade.