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This is getting too close to describing how making the Kessel Run in less than twelve parsecs is meaningful.

The introduction is quite clear that the mathematics is understandable by other mathematicians. The commentary from the Encyclopedia Galactica (116th edition, published about 1020 years after Sheldon's death) describes "Seldon found the field little more than a set of vague axioms; he left it a profound statistical science." Gaal, by the end of a day of collaboration, was able to accept that its predictions were valid. It's hard to imagine that Seldon managed to hide the uncertainties in his work, given that others would be looking for precisely those uncertainties.

The justification in the series was that need drove development of micro atomic power units. Terminus is described as a metal-poor planet which needs to import just about everything. (Which then makes me wonder how there's enough minerals in the soil to provide the food needed for humans to survive. Do they even import the zinc needed to prevent zinc deficiency?)

But atomics weren't the only power source. Trantor uses only geothermal power because it's cheaper than atomics. So it isn't like there's a complete power monopoly. In addition, the personal shield would be quite the coup. Given "the known probability of Imperial assassination", there's a strong inventive for the Emperor and others to push for a personal shield, and a matching power source.

So you have the strange case where out of the million inhabited planets, only one retained atomic power and the rest fell into "barbarism." 200 years in the new era, fully 1/4 of the population was no longer under Imperial control, and yet all the rest of the people stopped understanding how nuclear power worked. That speaks to a very rote-based education system. But then how did the people of Terminus manage to not only remember it but advance on it?

It just doesn't make sense. Of course, in book it's all a fraud. The Second Foundation, full of psychics, and of course the robots, are working behind the scenes to keep everything on track. I think that's a cop-out, and I found it very hard to accept the later books in the series.

And of course in real life it's a SF version of the fall of the Roman Empire, and as that's the history that we (as Western readers) know best, the parallels feel comfortable. Had it been based on the Incan or Mongol empires, there would be a completely different sense of inevitability.



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