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Yes it does have a large dose of randomness, and I'm not taking this single data point. I have more data. Quite a lot, actually.

And the challenge in the analysis is to find the factors that affect it, and then add the randomness to get the right results. To find the underlying behavior, even when the data are affected by randomness. It is kinda what I do, and that's partly why I'm working on it. I'm learning things as I go, both about the techniques and methods, and about the HN "community".

Interesting study you mention - I've made a note both to look out for it, and to let you know if I find it.

Thanks.



These are the droids that are being referred to I think: http://www.princeton.edu/~mjs3/musiclab.shtml "Experimental study of inequality and unpredictability in an artificial cultural market."

This wiki article might be of interest too: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect_(sociology)




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